DEMO · Harbor Pines USD is a fictional district. All figures are synthetic and generated from the persona specifications.
LOADING…
“What threatens the budget this year and in the out-years?”
Structural deficit from FY2028: even the favorable case (−$4.2M) is negative. The fund balance falls below the 8% policy floor in FY2028 without corrective action.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | Expenditure | Net (expected) | Range | Fund Balance | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $140.2M | $139.0M | $1.2M | — | 12.4% | Audited actual. |
| FY2026 | $143.9M | $145.0M | −$1.1M | — | 11.7% | Audited actual; first year absorbing learning-recovery positions. |
| FY2027 (proj.) | $146.4M | $149.6M | −$3.2M | −$4.1M to −$2.4M | 9.2% | Adopted budget planned a $1.6M use of fund balance; Q1 projection adds $1.6M of special education and substitute overruns. |
| FY2028 (proj.) | $149.1M | $155.9M | −$6.8M | −$9.5M to −$4.2M | 4.4% | State learning-recovery grant ends ($4.1M of positions move to the general fund); levy renewed at current rate; 3% settlement; enrollment per forecast. |
| FY2029 (proj.) | $151.6M | $159.0M | −$7.4M | −$10.6M to −$4.6M | -0.3% | Same structure; step-and-column growth continues to outpace state revenue. |
| FY2030 (proj.) | $153.9M | $162.0M | −$8.1M | −$11.9M to −$4.8M | -5.3% | Enrollment decline reduces state allocation; no corrective action assumed. |
| FY2031 (proj.) | $156.0M | $164.9M | −$8.9M | −$13.1M to −$5.2M | -10.6% | No corrective action assumed. |
| Fund | Adopted | Projected | Var. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
General Fund Contracted special education services (+$0.9M) and substitute/overtime costs (+$0.7M) are running above plan. | $148.0M | $149.6M | +1.1% | YELLOW |
Special Revenue (Federal & State Grants) Underspend reflects slow Title I carryover obligation; $410K at risk of lapsing. | $18.4M | $17.9M | -2.7% | RED |
Capital Projects Fund FY2026 bus replacement tranche was deferred; FY2027 procurement not yet released. | $12.5M | $12.1M | -3.2% | RED |
Debt Service Fund On schedule. | $8.7M | $8.7M | +0.0% | GREEN |
Food Service Fund Food and labor costs above reimbursement; claim errors are reducing federal revenue. | $6.2M | $6.5M | +5.6% | RED |
| Grant | Award | Obligated | Unobligated | Expires | Owner | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Title I, Part A (FY2025 carryover) Carryover must be obligated by Nov 30 or it lapses; tutoring contract is still in procurement. | $640K | 35.9% | $410K | 2026-11-30 (61d) | Executive Director of Federal Programs | RED |
Nutrition equipment assistance grant Two kitchen walk-in replacements; no purchase order yet. | $120K | 0.0% | $120K | 2027-01-31 (123d) | Nutrition Services Director | YELLOW |
State learning-recovery grant Funds 38 positions; no state renewal is expected (the FY2028 grant cliff). | $4.1M | 89.0% | $450K | 2027-06-30 (273d) | Chief Financial Officer | GREEN |
State literacy implementation grant K-3 coaching and materials. | $900K | 65.6% | $310K | 2027-06-30 (273d) | Chief Academic Officer | GREEN |
Title I, Part A (FY2026) Spending on pace. | $2.9M | 35.1% | $1.9M | 2027-09-30 (365d) | Executive Director of Federal Programs | YELLOW |
IDEA Part B (FY2026) Funds contracted special education services while positions are vacant. | $3.4M | 48.8% | $1.7M | 2027-09-30 (365d) | Executive Director of Student Services | YELLOW |
Title II, Part A (FY2026) Residency stipends post in January. | $410K | 24.4% | $310K | 2027-09-30 (365d) | Chief Human Resources Officer | YELLOW |
Title III (FY2026) Multilingual learner coaching. | $230K | 37.0% | $145K | 2027-09-30 (365d) | Chief Academic Officer | YELLOW |
| Risk | Score | Level | Trend | Owner | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural budget deficit (FY2028+) | 86 | CRITICAL | WORSENING | Chief Financial Officer | Structural balance options due to the board Oct 20; program review of staffing ratios underway. |
| Chronic absenteeism | 74 | HIGH | WORSENING | Executive Director of Student Services | Scale attendance re-engagement teams to Marsh Creek and Harborview; nudges alone are not enough. |
| Special education staffing and service delivery | 72 | HIGH | WORSENING | Chief Human Resources Officer | Residency pipeline plus contracted services; document compensatory-service plans. |
| Achievement gap (economically disadvantaged) | 70 | HIGH | WORSENING | Chief Academic Officer | Retarget Tier 2 supports and literacy coaching to the schools and groups where growth is flat. |
| Transportation capacity | 66 | HIGH | WORSENING | Chief Operations Officer | Release the FY2027 bus procurement, fill technician vacancies, and set a contingency route plan. |
| Grant lapse and federal compliance | 58 | MODERATE | STABLE | Executive Director of Federal Programs | Obligate $410K of Title I carryover by Nov 30; close the time-and-effort audit finding. |
| Nutrition fund solvency | 55 | MODERATE | WORSENING | Nutrition Services Director | Fix point-of-sale meal-count errors, right-size secondary production, and review the menu. |
| Facilities deferred maintenance | 52 | MODERATE | STABLE | Facilities Director | Ten-year master plan and bond readiness; tie to the consolidation decision. |
| Enrollment decline | 50 | MODERATE | STABLE | Deputy Superintendent | Use the forecast range in staffing and building-capacity planning. |
| Cybersecurity | 46 | MODERATE | IMPROVING | Chief Technology Officer | Close the MFA gap before the insurance attestation; posture reporting only. |