DEMO · Harbor Pines USD is a fictional district. All figures are synthetic and generated from the persona specifications.
LOADING…
“What happens if we act, or if it happens to us, before it does?”
| # | Option | FY2028 Impact | Risk | Analyst Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Consolidate Marsh Creek and Seabrook elementaries | +$1.8M | MEDIUM | Largest recurring saving with a known downside; price transportation and family trust per LL-001. |
| 2 | Grant cliff: eliminate the 38 grant-funded positions | +$4.1M | HIGH | Closes the most of the gap but cuts attendance and Tier 2 capacity; consider a partial version that protects attendance teams. |
| 3 | Labor settlement at 5% (FY2028) | −$2.4M | HIGH | Context for bargaining cost modeling only; no strategy advice. |
| 4 | Operating levy renewal fails (February 2027) | −$19.8M | CRITICAL | Downside case to disclose to the board; not a choice the district controls. |
Modeled ranges, not decisions. The board decides; labor-settlement scenarios are cost modeling only and are confidential-session material.
Horizon 2027-07-01 → 2030-06-30
Horizon 2027-07-01 → 2030-06-30
Horizon 2027-07-01 → 2030-06-30
Horizon 2027-07-01 → 2030-06-30
Horizon 2027-07-01 → 2030-06-30
Horizon 2027-07-01 → 2030-06-30
Horizon 2027-07-01 → 2030-06-30
| Scenario | Area | Metric | Baseline | Projected | Δ | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrollment declines 4% over three years | Enrollment | Fall enrollment (2029-30) | 9,412 students | 9,036 students | -376 students | Below current forecast path. |
| Enrollment declines 4% over three years | Finance | Basic education allocation | $63.5M | $61.0M | −$2.5M | State revenue follows students. |
| Enrollment declines 4% over three years | Workforce | Classroom teacher FTE | 548 FTE | 529 FTE | -19 FTE | About 19 FTE can be absorbed through attrition over three years. |
| Consolidate Marsh Creek and Seabrook elementaries | Finance | Gross operating savings | $0 | $2.3M | +$2.3M | Two buildings' operating and staffing costs. |
| Consolidate Marsh Creek and Seabrook elementaries | Finance | Added transportation cost | $0 | $550K | +$550K | Longer routes; per LL-001, this cost was missed in 2019. |
| Consolidate Marsh Creek and Seabrook elementaries | Facilities | Elementary capacity utilization | 84.9% | 88.6% | +3.7% | Receiving schools run near the target band. |
| Consolidate Marsh Creek and Seabrook elementaries | Finance | Deferred maintenance avoided | $0 | $11.2M | +$11.2M | Backlog in the two closing buildings. |
| Consolidate Marsh Creek and Seabrook elementaries | Community | Family satisfaction (receiving schools) | 72.0% | 66.0% | -6.0% | Expect a two-year dip based on the 2019 consolidation. |
| Operating levy renewal fails (February 2027) | Finance | Operating levy revenue (FY2028) | $19.8M | $0 | −$19.8M | 13% of revenue lost. |
| Operating levy renewal fails (February 2027) | Finance | FY2028 general fund result | −$6.8M | −$26.6M | −$19.8M | Requires about 170 FTE of reductions to balance. |
| Operating levy renewal fails (February 2027) | Finance | FY2028 fund balance ratio | 4.4% | -8.3% | -12.7% | Negative fund balance without immediate cuts. |
| Operating levy renewal passes at the current rate | Finance | FY2028 general fund result | −$6.8M | −$6.8M | +$0 | Passing the levy preserves revenue but does not close the structural gap. |
| Operating levy renewal passes at the current rate | Finance | FY2028 fund balance ratio | 4.4% | 4.4% | +0.0% | Still below the 8% policy floor. |
| Labor settlement at 3% (FY2028) | Finance | Added personnel cost (FY2028) | $0 | $3.6M | +$3.6M | Included in the baseline FY2028 shortfall. |
| Labor settlement at 3% (FY2028) | Finance | FY2028 general fund result | −$6.8M | −$6.8M | +$0 | Baseline. |
| Labor settlement at 5% (FY2028) | Finance | Added personnel cost (FY2028) | $0 | $6.0M | +$6.0M | $2.4M above the 3% baseline. |
| Labor settlement at 5% (FY2028) | Finance | FY2028 general fund result | −$6.8M | −$9.2M | −$2.4M | Widens the structural gap. |
| Labor settlement at 5% (FY2028) | Finance | FY2028 fund balance ratio | 4.4% | 2.8% | -1.6% | Further below the policy floor. |
| Grant cliff: eliminate the 38 grant-funded positions | Finance | FY2028 general fund result | −$6.8M | −$2.7M | +$4.1M | Closes 60% of the expected gap. |
| Grant cliff: eliminate the 38 grant-funded positions | Student Outcomes | Chronic absenteeism (risk) | 19.8% | 21.3% | +1.5% | Loses 14 attendance and intervention staff; projected effect from the pilot evidence. |
| Grant cliff: eliminate the 38 grant-funded positions | Student Outcomes | Tier 2 intervention seats | 1,760 seats | 1,180 seats | -580 seats | One-third fewer Tier 2 seats. |