Chronic absenteeismMITIGATED BY →Scale attendance teams to two elementaries
Pilot evidence (LL-005) supports scaling relational outreach where absence is concentrated.
strength 0.70 · confidence 70%
Structural budget deficit (FY2028+)MITIGATED BY →Present structural options with downside ranges
Compare consolidation, partial grant-cliff, and settlement scenarios; the board decides.
strength 0.70 · confidence 70%
Special education staffing and service deliveryMITIGATED BY →Grow the substitute pool, not just the rate
Lesson LL-003: pool size and onboarding speed are the binding constraints.
strength 0.70 · confidence 70%
Fund 1:1 devices and 38 learning-recovery positions with one-time relief fundsDECISION AFFECTED →Out-year projection
$4.1M of recurring cost lands on the general fund in FY2028.
strength 0.80 · confidence 80%
Raise the substitute daily rate 10%DECISION AFFECTED →Substitute fill rate
Pay alone did not hold the gain.
strength 0.80 · confidence 80%
Adopt the K-3 structured literacy curriculum and coaching modelDECISION AFFECTED →ELA proficiency rate
Activity complete; outcome flat.
strength 0.80 · confidence 80%
Pilot attendance re-engagement teams at Tidewater and Pinecrest middle schoolsDECISION AFFECTED →Chronic absenteeism rate
Exceeded the target effect.
strength 0.80 · confidence 80%
Defer the FY2026 bus replacement tranche (12 buses) to FY2027DECISION AFFECTED →Fleet availability rate
Service impact arrived within the year.
strength 0.80 · confidence 80%
Consolidation savings shrink once transportation and family trust are priced inLESSON LEARNED FROM →Consolidate Seaside Elementary into Bayview Elementary
Apply to the Marsh Creek and Seabrook consolidation scenario: model transportation cost and a two-year satisfaction dip before deciding.
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Do not fund recurring positions with one-time money without a sunset planLESSON LEARNED FROM →Fund 1:1 devices and 38 learning-recovery positions with one-time relief funds
Every one-time revenue source needs a documented exit plan at approval.
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Pay alone does not fix substitute coverageLESSON LEARNED FROM →Raise the substitute daily rate 10%
Pair any pay change with pool recruitment and faster onboarding.
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Measure outcomes, not adoptionLESSON LEARNED FROM →Adopt the K-3 structured literacy curriculum and coaching model
Every initiative reports an outcome measure next to its activity measure.
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Relational attendance outreach outperforms automated nudgesLESSON LEARNED FROM →Pilot attendance re-engagement teams at Tidewater and Pinecrest middle schools
Scale relational outreach to the schools with the highest concentration of chronic absence.
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Deferred fleet replacement converts capital savings into operating riskLESSON LEARNED FROM →Defer the FY2026 bus replacement tranche (12 buses) to FY2027
Treat replacement cycles as fixed costs; do not use them to balance a single year.
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Consolidation savings shrink once transportation and family trust are priced inINFORMS SCENARIO →Consolidate Marsh Creek and Seabrook elementaries
Price transportation and the satisfaction dip.
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Do not fund recurring positions with one-time money without a sunset planINFORMS SCENARIO →Grant cliff: eliminate the 38 grant-funded positions
Recurring cost on one-time money.
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Pilot with a comparison group before scalingBEST PRACTICE FOR →Relational attendance outreach outperforms automated nudges
Pilot with a comparison group before scaling
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Price the full cost of a consolidationBEST PRACTICE FOR →Consolidation savings shrink once transportation and family trust are priced in
Price the full cost of a consolidation
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Attach an exit plan to every one-time revenue sourceBEST PRACTICE FOR →Do not fund recurring positions with one-time money without a sunset plan
Attach an exit plan to every one-time revenue source
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Counting initiative activity as goal progressANTI-PATTERN FOR →Measure outcomes, not adoption
Counting initiative activity as goal progress
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Deferring replacement cycles to balance one yearANTI-PATTERN FOR →Deferred fleet replacement converts capital savings into operating risk
Deferring replacement cycles to balance one year
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Approve the three-year bus replacement planRESOLUTION AUTHORIZED →Defer the FY2026 bus replacement tranche (12 buses) to FY2027
Approves the replacement schedule; FY2026 tranche deferred to FY2027.
strength 1.00 · confidence 100%
Place the operating levy renewal on the February 2027 ballotRESOLUTION AUTHORIZED →Place the operating levy renewal on the February 2027 ballot
Places the renewal at the current rate before voters.
strength 1.00 · confidence 100%
Model full-cost consolidation scenarioACTION EXECUTES DECISION →Consolidate Seaside Elementary into Bayview Elementary
Model full-cost consolidation scenario
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Exit plan for grant-funded positionsACTION EXECUTES DECISION →Fund 1:1 devices and 38 learning-recovery positions with one-time relief funds
Exit plan for grant-funded positions
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Scale attendance teams to two elementariesACTION EXECUTES DECISION →Pilot attendance re-engagement teams at Tidewater and Pinecrest middle schools
Scale attendance teams to two elementaries
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%
Retarget K-3 literacy coachingACTION EXECUTES DECISION →Adopt the K-3 structured literacy curriculum and coaching model
Retarget K-3 literacy coaching
strength 0.90 · confidence 85%